I’ld like to make it clear from the start that I don’t condone violence of any kind, it can be explained but never justified. I don’t think this is an heroic image. Politicians in the UK are outraged at the idea of political violence but the United States was founded on violence against the indigenous population.

There are a lot of theories going around about the alleged assassination attempt on Donald Trump, I’ld like to examine two of them for plausibility without endorsing them. The problem of motive is difficult to establish as the shooter was immediately shot dead.

• It was a genuine assassination attempt, whether by Democrats or disgruntled republicans is unclear.
• It was a setup which went horribly wrong because people were actually killed!

Whichever is the case, Trump is milking it for what it’s worth, with his defiant fist as he was escorted off stage. Jimmy Kimmel, no Trump fan, is announcing that Trump has already won because of the recoil from the shot. That depends on who Trump faces in a Presidential Election, we have to consider the possibility that it won’t be Biden! I’ve seen a video in which Biden announces, with greater coherence than he’s managed recently, that he won’t be standing, but more of that later.

In either scenario the question arises “Where did the bullet go?” If it was an incompetent attempt that merely clipped the ear of the intended victim the bullet would hit someone standing behind Trump. As it did, whether intentionally or not, so definitely not a blank. If it was a setup those who arranged it didn’t care who else might be hurt!

A conspiracy doesn’t require a stooge to shoot with sufficient accuracy as to merely to clip Trump’s ear, all they need is an impressionable young man of low intelligence that they can hand a rifle and point him in the right direction. He might see himself as a martyr, but most likely has been convinced he’s a hero! It doesn’t really matter, he was not going to survive the shooting.

It’s quite telling that no blood was seen on Trumps face until after he put his hand to his ear, I wonder what was in his hand? I’ll give him credit for thinking on his feet if the bullet was really aimed at him and he had no prior knowledge, Biden could not have done so well. I decline to pass judgment, it will no doubt be many years before we discover the truth, I merely present the events as I see them.

Lets look at the other issue. Will Biden stand down as the Democrat candidate or won’t he? This video, posted on 7 July before the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, strongly suggests he will but everything I’ve seen since contradicts it. https://youtu.be/f812s66gcxc?si=B8jdooUXxSWKeRuL The full text of the speech is in the description but seems to be saying quite clearly “I will not seek reelection”.

There’s no doubt that many Democrats are urging Biden to step down and one gloss I’ve seen on the video is that he will do so if his doctor advises it, but that’s not apparent from his speech. According to this narrative he’s preparing the ground for a possible successor to be chosen if he stands down but he hasn’t fully committed to doing so. Biden is recovering from Covid which might influence his decision.

There seems little doubt that Trump will be the Republican candidate despite being a convicted criminal with further charges outstanding. The Supreme Court has just ruled that a president or former president should be permanently immune from prosecution for crimes committed as part of his official duties, it will be up to the prosecutor to show that the alleged offence was not part of his official duties. It’s a long time since I read Machiavelli but I’m pretty sure this goes way beyond what he had in mind!

The presidential election matters a lot to my indigenous relatives (we are all related) Kristi Noem, the Republican governor of South Dakota, hoped to be Trump’s running mate but she’s been banned from all nine native reservations – sovereign territory that constitutes a third of the state! It doesn’t matter much to the rest of the world, foreign policy will remain the same and a president who kicks the trend can expect to kick the bucket!

I’ld like to see Senator Sheldon Whitehouse in the White House with Katie Porter as his Vice President, but my opinion ain’t worth a hill of beans in this crazy world!

One final reflection: those who survive an assassination attempt are not the heroes and there are many degrees of political violence. Native Americans activist Leonard Peltier, who has been incarcerated for nearly half a century for a crime he didn’t commit, has been denied parole and it’s unlikely he’ll live long enough to appeal again. This is political violence perpetrated by the United States government against its own citizens and our sycophantic government, of whichever party, is imitating it!